Wednesday, July 20, 2005

Michael: Almost Surely Wrong Prognostication

Speculation regarding the 2008 ticket is really only interesting for the second chair; the top slots are locked up before a single vote is cast or husting mounted (boy, I love that term - seems sleazy, and generally is).


Hil will be the Democratic nominee. DLCers are stilled larded throughout the party and the important PACs. Add to that Dean's neutral (one might even say neutered) position, Bill's considerable clout and charisma, and the party's absolute deperation for a 'best chance' candidate, and the deal is sealed.

VP will be whomever demonstrates the best ability in the primary to flip western states and/or fringe southern states, and FL. This will probably be Clark, Warner, or Richardson, and an outside chance to Edwards. Gore won't run because Hil will suck the heart out of any base he has.

I would bet on Warner and hedge with Richarson. They are both great policians, geographically positioned, well-connected, and governors. I give Warner the edge because he has less history, isn't seen as a Clintonite, and is a Southerner. I can't discount Richardson because he is a Clintonite and he's a hispanic Southwesterner with lots of energy policy and international experience. Wes has too many GOP and mil-industrial-surveillance connections to be a comfortable for many Dems, despite that we love a military hero. Edwards is a Southerner, but he only served briefly in the Senate, couldn't carry his own state, and has the stink of failure about him.


You saw the GOP nominee being chosen when McCain hugged Bush at the 04 convention. There was a cost to that gesture and it was Bush's Pioneer list and the power to milk it. McCain has the mo, the saavy, the center straddle, and the institutional support. He can't lose, despite his unpopularity with Wingers. They will come to realize that they will have to live with McCain because they don't have another viable horse in the race.

VP for the GOP is likely to be just a sop to the Wingers. Could be anyone to the right of Ghengis Khan. It doesn't really matter who, their views will be predictable, but mustn't conflict overly with McCain's. I would be surprised by someone like Tancredo who is riding the anti-immigrant wave. I suspect it will be one of the Wingers' favorite sons, such as Brownback. Condi is a non-starter; not because she's a black woman, but because she's a complete incompetent. Powell would be a great call, but two relative moderates is more than the GOP can currently dish up.


GOP fatigue more than anything else is going to put Hil in the WH in 08, barring a major stumble. Her husband's sexual shennanigans will be used against her by the GOP as ammo for their shit cannon, but it will ultimately benefit her. Again, due to Americans getting fed up with the shit cannon. After a few years of the GOP at the steering wheel, the pedals, the turn signals, and the hood-mounted shit cannon, America will opt again for divided government. They will give Hil the steering wheel and may also decide to throw Democrats the Senate (the brake pedal) if they're persuasive. The shit cannon's pivot generally doesn't allow it to be pointed directly at the driver, except in extraordinary circumstances, so the GOP will lose interest in using it as much.

OK, now that I'm on the record, I will wait for history to prove me utterly wrong.


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