Blog For Arizona

Kerry Prevails

The verdict is in: Kerry won the debate.

Even Conservative bloggers are calling this one for Kerry. The spinners can spin, but the undecided panels of the networks are overwhelming leaning to Kerry, and the snap polling is all trending 70-90% to Kerry. The professional conservative pundits are already engaged in deep damage control and downgrading the importance of debate performance to the election.

Kerry was Presidential, with the facts at his command, clearly laying out the case for Bush's failure and his ability to lead America. He affable, though he made a quip during an exchange with Bush about their daughters, which might have been a barb. Bush said he was tying to put a leash on his daughters, and Kerry quipped that he has "learned not to do that." This may have been a allusion to the picture of a prisoner of war on a leash from Abu Ghraib, but as Kerry was smiling, I don't think this was at the top of his mind, rather it is likely just a reference to his relationship with, and respect for, his female family members.

Throughout the debate Kerry was solid, steady, thoughtful. He did tend to confuse on the issue of whether the war was a mistake. Again the nuance of his position that Bush was mistaken in going to war, yet the war is not a mistake and we must win it, rang several false notes and gave Conservative pundits ammunition to claim he was trying to have it both ways. I think his reference to Powell's Pottery Barn rule, "you break it, you fix it," made more clear his position that, though he would not have made the same mistakes as Bush, we must now fix the problems Bush created.

Bush, in contrast, seemed to lack the facts, failed to take initiative to obvious openings, was tediously repetitious, constantly falling back on his sound byte rebuttals. He seemed small and overshadowed on the screen because of the campaigns insistence on equal screen space. His features and mannerism were testy, and peevish. His voice gave the impression of a constant whine in tone and cadence. He was often hunched and defensive looking at the podium. Worst, he often hesitated for uncomfortable periods of time, mentally stuttering or reaching for the words or phrasing he sought. He often looked more like a chimp caught in the headlights than a President.

Bush's problems went well beyond the stylistic, however. He failed to articulate a way forward in Iraq. Instead he continued to insist on a stay the course message, which completely neglect the very troubling facts on the ground. This stubbord insistance that all is well and that "we're making progress" lacked credibility in the face of Kerry's whithering criticisms. Kerry made it clear that we are not making any progress in Iraq, but are, in fact, losing ground quickly. Meanwhile, the death of dozens of Iraqi children are splashed across the headlines and there are more than 80 attacks a day on American forces in Iraq. This disconnect between the facts and Bush representation of those facts severely strained Bush's credibility and command of the situation.

Kerry also scored major points on Bush regarding Afghanistan and the diversion of resources to fight Al Qaeda to the war in Iraq. Asked what his most important national security issue was, Kerry impressed with his proposals for Nuclear Threat Reduction efforts to prevent terrorists from obtaining radiological materials. Kerry literally wrote the book on the subject, demonstrated the threat with a story of a seized quantity of plutonium with a market value of 250 million dollars, proposed to accellerate securing all materials in just four years. He contrasted Bush's lack of interest in the program and failure to accellerate the securing of materials since 9/11.

Many Americans saw John Kerry as a President for the first time last night. They were able to measure the two men side by side, and Kerry's stature was in all ways greater than Bush's.

posted by Michael Bryan @ 9/30/2004 11:29:00 PM