Blog For Arizona

Current U.S. Troop Levels in Iraq Are Unsustainable

I am a volunteer for the local draft board and have been following this story closely. Some say that Bush is planning a draft; this isn't true, but it is also not entirely inaccurate or false. The Selective Service is actively planning for a 'special skills' draft, so the assertion that there is no planning going on for any draft by the Pentagon is evasive, or simply incorrect.

Stop loss orders of soldiers whose contracts are expiring, and call up of the Individual Ready Reserve (IRR), also constitute a limited draft in that many of our putatively 'volunteer army' are now serving against their will. In fact, as of today 8 IRR, of more than a thousand veterans who have been called back to active service and have failed to show up, have been declared AWOL.

The Bush Administration has not yet touched the draft issue directly, but they are doing everything short of it to enhance the numbers of the armed forces. Recent studies of the force structure of the occupations in Iraq and Afghanistan over the long term (out to 2006 or beyond), as both Bush and Kerry contemplate in our future, are not compatible with our current retension system. See this for a quick sitrep.

In brief, without scaling back our forces and mission in Iraq, or beginning enforced conscription, we will be unable to maintain our current mission capability in Iraq and Afghanistan. Neither conscription nor scaling back or withdrawing these forces is politically palatable, but it is clear that Bush or Kerry will have to choose between these alternatives if these occupations persist. Thus, rumors of a possible draft are far from unfounded. They are anticipating real logistical problems the U.S. faces as a result of our current deployment and the public foreign policy positions of the both candidates for President.

posted by Michael Bryan @ 9/29/2004 11:08:00 PM