Thursday, July 01, 2004

Powell's Sudanese Farce

The genocidal pogrom against the inhabitants of southern Sudan is finally emerging onto the radar screen of Western media and elites. But President Bush can’t and won’t do anything effective or decisive about it. As you will see, he threw away the best chance for a resolution of the crisis in 2002, and is unlikely to be able to improve the situation with the tools he is willing to employ. Bush ordered Secretary Powell to undertake a humanitarian mission to Sudan, but Powell is working with both hands tied behind his back. No matter how earnestly he tries, he will fail. Powell issued a strong statement demanding an end to the attacks on civilians and calling upon the Sudanese government to control the Janjaweed, the mounted Muslim militias responsible for the killings.

The government claims they do not control the Janjaweed, but nobody takes this claim seriously. The Janjaweed are just conveniently deniable irregular government forces. For a few weeks, or even a few months Khartoum will rein in the Janjaweed - especially if Powell has been authorized to offer Khartoum something under the table - but they will return to their depredations soon enough. Bush needs results in Sudan, but he is just not willing to do what is required to make permanent change possible. Bush is under considerable pressure from his Christian base to do something about Sudan. Most of the victims of ethnic cleansing are Christians, and their killers are Muslim. Allowing this to continue unchecked is politically problematic in the clash of cultures environment upon which Bush has built his ‘War on Terror.’ Bush also needs another diplomatic ‘triumph’ such as the Libyan reproachment, before the election to prove he is capable of playing the statesman, as well as the warrior. If the Sudanese government doesn’t take immediate action, a UN Security Council resolution will likely be passed. Draft versions of the resolution do not propose any immediate action against the Sudanese government, only a cognizance of the issue and the possibility of later action, such as travel restrictions and an arms embargo.

These measures are very marginal. They may produce some short-term compliance by the Sudanese government, or at least more circumspection as to the conditions under which Janjaweed militias carry out their pogrom, but the Sudan crisis is so deeply rooted and strongly motivated that such measures have no hope of permanently ending the violence. Bush and Powell will make some noise and pass a symbolic UNSC resolution, and press Khartoum to keep their affairs out of the news, but the reasons for the conflict and the interests which lay behind the genocide prevent the Administration from taking serious steps to end the conflict. International diplomatic pressure has been used before, and after a brief period of ameliorating the suffering of the southern Sudanese, Khartoum has always returned to endemic intercine warfare and ethnic cleansing.

Sudan is truly two nations. The north is Muslim and mostly Semitic, the south is Christian and traditional African religions and mostly black. The northern and southern regions were administered separately under the British, who recognized their essential differences. Unfortunately, the territories were joined together into one nation upon decolonization. Since independence in the 1950s, a low-intensity state of warfare has existed between north and south. An independence movement and rebellion took root in the South, exacerbated by the establishment of Sharia and an Islamic state in Khartoum in 1983. The Southern Sudanese People’s Liberation Army (SSPLA) was formed and by the late 80s had taken control of nearly a third of the country, fighting the government forces to a virtual standstill. Though the rebels can no longer effectively contend with Khartoum’s government forces and irregulars, now better armed and paid with oil revenues, aspirations of independence are still alive in the South. Fear of that persistent desire and its attendant loss of vital resources, especially oil, is the major reason for the ongoing ethnic violence.

Joined to the South’s desire for independence, Khartoum’s greed for oil becomes a motive for mass murder. The producing fields are in the south, and almost the entire south is covered by lease parcels which are being explored as likely sites of further oil reserves. The more reserves which are found, the worse the violence will become. Khartoum perceives a need to remove southern Sudanese from the regions surrounding this natural bounty, so that the wealth the oil produces cannot be denied to the government.

Khartoum is terrified of a partitioned Sudan which leaves the north resource-poor, cut off from the productive lands of the south and unable to access its tremendous water and oil resources. In the last few years the pogrom has intensified and become more persistent, more violent, and more organized. The clear and simple reason is that in 2000 the recently discovered oil reserves of the south (PDF) were brought into production, providing Khartoum with the means and motive to expand their program terror and genocide in the south, especially against those live on or near the active oil fields. The tie between the oil resources of the south and the ethnic cleansing is the Gordian knot which must be cut to bring relative peace to Sudan.

The oil deposits of the south are now the Sudanese government’s financial lifeline (PDF). The intimate connection between the oil fields and the violence is explored in a CBC film about the Canadian company Talisman (RealPlayer: Part 1, Part 2). To force Khartoum to stop killing the people of the south, one would have to threaten their beneficial use of Sudan’s oil resources. That is exactly what the Sudan Peace Act (PDF) of 2002 was intended to do. Sections 8 and 9 of the House version of that bill would have made effective the embargoes imposed by Executive Order in 1997 by President Clinton, and maintained in force every year since.

Embargoes are notoriously easy to evade, generally laxly enforced, and the penalties for violations are very low under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The Sudan Peace Act would have required the SEC to investigate potential violations of the embargo and to make them public. It would further have barred all companies doing business with Sudan from access to American capital markets; no American stock sales, no American commercial banking. The Act had real teeth. It made evading the embargo so difficult that Talisman, the Canadian oil services company who originally developed Sudan’s oil resources in partnership with Khartoum, felt immense pressure to divest its interest in Sudanese oil, and it eventually did so. The market pressure caused by the mere possibility the law would be passed caused such a drop in Talisman’s stock price that company became undervalued and vulnerable to a hostile takeover. The efficacy of the Sudan Peace Act was obvious; even before it was passed it was forcing corporations, even foreign ones, to cut their ties with Sudan.

The original Sudan Peace Act would have been a powerful tool for coercing Khartoum into stopping the genocide. The disclosure requirements and capital markets restriction would have been an effective means of stopping oil services companies from helping Khartoum explore and exploit their oil resources. Without such help, oil production in Sudan would be made nearly impossible, giving America a powerful lever to ensure compliance with a peace agreement, a monitoring regime, and to ensure access to at-risk populations by international relief agencies. The Act passed the House 422-2, but the Bush Administration let it be known that it did not favor the most effective provisions of the bill.

The Senate version, that was eventually passed (PDF), did not include the disclosure requirements or the capital markets restrictions. It also did not include Section 10, which made a Congressional determination that genocide was taking place, legally binding us to act under international law. In the enacted version, further study is called for in order to determine if genocide is taking place; two years and many thousands of lives later, Powell is still carefully circumlocuting the term ‘genocide’ to avoid obligating America to act.

The Bush Administration killed the best hope for peace in the Sudan in order to preserve access to the Sudanese fields for the global oil industry. Only threatening their oil revenues will force Khartoum to stop the violence. A ghostly echo of the critical role of oil remains in Section 8 of the enacted version, stripped of context and bereft of all force by fiat of President Bush. Using oil production to stop the genocide would be highly effective, but it would also mean a potential loss of hundreds of millions of dollars for the oil companies currently producing and exploring in Sudan. Bush is too firmly indebted to global oil interests to credibly threaten the Sudanese government’s ability to produce oil. Faced with genocide, President Bush is willing to settle for a face-saving temporary abatement of the violence in order to avoid upsetting his political patrons. Bush has proven himself willing to tolerate genocide, so long as the oil flows.

So Powell wandered around Khartoum and Darfur, looking for all the world like a plenipotentiary diplomat, demanding an end to a genocide with the only tool at his disposal: a toothless UNSC resolution and the promise of yet more ineffective measures to come. But he hasn’t the ability to apply the full power of the United States to the cause of peace because Bush has hamstrung American diplomacy as a favor to his oily friends. Khartoum knows that Powell’s visit is an empty show. Despite Powell’s claim that a ‘frank exchange of views’ took place (which is diplomat speak for he gave them a stern talking to), the reality is that the bluster is most likely a cover for a generous deal for Khartoum to cease their depredations in the south until after the Presidential election, so that Bush can appear effective.

The praise of the Administration from those concerned about the genocide becomes painfully ironic when you know the Bush Administration’s real agenda. Khartoum is likely more than happy to help the President with his image, knowing they have his tacit acquiescence in their plans to continue using the Janjaweed irregulars to harass, kill, rape, and enslave the people of the south, wipe away whole villages (PDF), and eventually complete their genocidal aims. So long as they are circumspect, waiting for the world’s attention to once again move elsewhere before continuing the genocide, President Bush really couldn’t care less.

186 Comments:

At 5:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

A bombing campaign might work well in Sudan without requiring a ground invasion.

 
At 5:49 PM, Blogger Michael said...

Anonymous: Force is not the answer. Understanding the motives of the enemy and neutralizing their ability to achieve those goals is the way to stop such crimes. Meeting force with more force is always the last, and worst solution. It is an admission of a failure of imagination and will.

 
At 6:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You make a vital point about oil and the Sudanese government.

But stopping the oil flow would be of great consequence to our relationship with China. The Chinese need and want the oil, and Sudan is not just a source of oil but the location of their African oil services headquarters. So they like the situation as it is.

Overall, Russia also plays a major role. The oil money buys weapons--12 migs delivered two weeks ago, for example.

It would be great if the US could ask the Chinese and Russians to get Sudan to clean up its act. We have not, as far as I can tell--and the result is that we are in the tragic role of running around trying to get into the country to help--being kept out by the Sudanese government, and being mostly hamstrung in the UN by the very same Chinese, with help from Russia and Pakistan.

So now I think the only realistic hope is a military protective force of African Union troops, given help by us and our allies. This seems in the cards--but far too late and far too timidly, in my view.

check out http://passionofthepresent which is dedicated to keeping these questions alive in our consciousness--and consciences. I volunteer their--Jim Moore. Regards and thanks for hosting a good discussion of the issue. lack of awareness is the most damaging thing in the current situation, in my view.

 
At 6:04 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

SUDAN: Oil profits behind West's tears for Darfur
>
>Norm Dixon
>
>Green Left Weekly, August 11, 2004
>
>http://www.greenleft.org.au/back/2004/593/593p17.htm
>
>For at least 18 months now, Western governments have quietly stood by as
>the non-Arabic-speaking black farmers of the Darfur region in western
>Sudan have borne the brunt of a vicious ethnic-cleansing campaign
>carried out by state-sponsored bandits known as the janjaweed.
>
>Refugees report that attacks on farming villages are often preceded by
>raids by Sudanese air force fighter-bombers and attack helicopters. The
>janjaweed, recruited from Arabic-speaking pastoralist tribes, then
>routinely murder any male villagers they can get their hands on,
>systematically rape or kidnap the women, and plunder and destroy the
>villages and crops. The attacks and their consequences have resulted in
>the deaths of up to 50,000 people and the displacement of 1.5 million;
>aid agencies warn that hundreds of thousands may die from disease or
>starvation in the coming months.
>
>Why then have the governments of the United States and the European
>Union (EU) only now begun to express concern over the fate of the people
>of western Sudan and demand that the Islamist military regime in
>Khartoum bring the janjaweed under control? The answer — as it most
>often is when rich countries threaten to intervene in the Middle East
>and Africa — is access to invest in and extract profits from Sudan's
>burgeoning oil export industry.
>Pressure on Khartoum
>
>Beginning in earnest in July, Washington, backed by the EU, began to
>ratchet up the pressure on Khartoum to rein in the janjaweed. On July 1,
>US Secretary of State Colin Powell visited Khartoum, where he sternly
>warned Sudan's government: “Unless we see more moves soon ... it may be
>necessary for the international community to begin considering other
>actions, to include Security Council action.”
>
>Three days later, with Powell's threats still ringing in their ears,
>Sudan's rulers issued a joint communique with UN secretary-general Kofi
>Annan in which they promised to “immediately start disarming the
>janjaweed and other armed outlaw groups”, “allow the deployment of human
>rights monitors” and “ensure that all individuals and groups accused of
>human rights violations are brought to justice without delay”.
>
>The Sudanese government committed itself to “ensure that no militia are
>present in areas surrounding internally displaced persons camps” and
>pledged to “deploy a strong, credible and respected police force in all
>areas where there are displaced people, as well as areas susceptible to
>attacks”. It was also agreed that an African Union military force of 300
>troops would be allowed into Darfur to protect AU officials there to
>monitor a cease-fire negotiated in April between Khartoum and the main
>rebel groups, the Sudan Liberation Movement/Army (SLM/A) and the Justice
>and Equality Movement (JEM).
>
>In mid-July, Powell circulated a draft UN Security Council resolution
>that threatened Khartoum with unspecified “sanctions” unless it
>implemented the July 3 UN-Sudan communique.
>
>Despite the fact that the draft UN resolution did not authorise the use
>of military force and there were no public plans for a UN intervention
>force in Darfur, the British and Australian governments added to
>Washington's pressure on Khartoum by letting it be known that they were
>prepared to send troops to the region if called upon. Britain's top
>commander, General Mike Jackson, said on July 26 that he could send 5000
>troops to Sudan if needed, while on July 25 Australian foreign minister
>Alexander Downer, claiming to have received a “request from the United
>Nations”, declared that “there's a good chance that [Australia] will
>send some troops to Sudan”.
>
>On July 22, the US Congress unanimously called on President George Bush
>to consider “multilateral or even unilateral intervention to prevent
>genocide should the United Nations Security Council fail to act”.
>
>Agreement on a Security Council resolution remained stalled until late
>on July 29 when Washington finally dropped specific mention of the
>imposition of “sanctions” from the fourth draft. Eight of the UN
>Security Council's 15 members — including veto-wielding China and Russia
>— had opposed the specific threat of sanctions.
>
>In its final form, the resolution warned that unless Khartoum made
>progress in implementing the July 3 communique within 30 days of the
>resolution's adoption, the Security Council would “consider further
>actions, including measures as provided for in Article 41 [of the UN
>Charter]”. Article 41 excludes military action but allows economic and
>diplomatic sanctions. The resolution was passed on July 31, by a margin
>of 13-0, with China and Pakistan abstaining.
>Oil
>
>Some left-wing commentators have interpreted the motive behind
>Washington's newfound concern for Darfur — as well as the British and
>Australian governments' volunteering of troops for a phantom UN
>intervention force — as an effort by Washington to justify an Iraq-style
>invasion of Sudan to achieve “regime change” and seize control of its
>potentially massive oil reserves.
>
>While US and European governments' goal is renewed access by their
>countries oil corporations to Sudan's oil wealth, Washington's latest
>threats against Sudan are part of a “carrot and stick” approach that it
>has pursued with Khartoum since the 9/11 attacks. Knowing that Sudan is
>desperate to “normalise” relations with the US, Washington is attempting
>to lure Khartoum back into the neocolonial fold using the “carrot” of
>promises to lift US economic sanctions imposed in 1997 and the “stick”
>of the threat of further sanctions. Such an approach was successful with
>neighbouring Libya.
>
>Washington too is eager to lift its economic sanctions. Since 1997, US
>oil companies have been excluded from profiting from the massive
>expansion of Sudan's oil industry since 1999, which has been dominated
>by Chinese, Malaysian, Indian, Canadian and some European companies.
>Fighting in the 21-year-long civil war in Sudan's oil-rich south, as
>well as pressure from human rights activists, has forced Canadian and
>most European firms to sell off or suspend their operations in southern
>Sudan over the last two years.
>
>Upon coming to office in 2001, one of the Bush administration's earliest
>foreign policy objectives was to secure a peace agreement between the
>southern-based Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) and Khartoum,
>allowing Washington to lift sanctions. Bush appointed former US senator
>John Danforth, now Washington's UN ambassador, as his “special envoy for
>peace in Sudan”.
>
>In July 2002, Danforth, who led an international “Trioka” made up of US,
>British and Norwegian officials, succeeded with bribes and threats in
>convincing the SPLM and Khartoum to sign a draft peace agreement that
>promised a referendum six years or so after a final peace agreement is
>signed and an autonomous secular government in the south (while Islamic
>law would continue to govern the northern two-thirds of the country). An
>informal cease-fire agreement was reached in October 2002.
>
>In May this year, Khartoum and the SPLM agreed that government revenue

>from the export of oil from the southern oil fields would be split

>between the SPLM-dominated southern regional government and the central
>government in Khartoum. All that remained was for further talks, which
>were scheduled to begin on June 22, to finalise procedures for an
>internationally monitored cease-fire agreement and a timeline for
>implementing the peace deal.
>
>Since February 2003, when the Darfur rebellion erupted, Washington and
>the EU all but ignored the atrocities taking place in Darfur in the hope
>that they would not impact on the main game. Only when the escalating
>crisis in Darfur threatened to derail the north-south peace deal and
>prevent the opening up of Sudan's lucrative oilfields to Western
>exploitation did the US start waving the threat of UN sanctions against
>Sudan.
>
>According to the July 23 issue of Middle East International, SPLM leader
>John Garang “recently warned there would be no deal that ignored
>Darfur... Far from completing arrangements for a formal cease-fire by
>the middle of July as planned, substantive talks have yet to commence.”
>
>Washington's underlying policy approach was summarised in an article in
>the June 10 International Herald Tribune co-written by Chester Crocker,
>a former assistant US secretary of state for African affairs in the
>Reagan administration: “Implementing Sudan's complex, six-year
>transition agreement will be far more difficult than negotiating it...
>The agreement will fly apart without sustained international
>attention... Peace will only have a chance in Sudan if there is active
>US leadership. The United States has the needed leverage, including
>through the potential to lift sanctions and normalise diplomatic
>relations. It can also provide serious resources and play a key role on
>the UN Security Council.”
>
>In this framework, Crocker recommended that the US “address the
>immediate crisis in Darfur, while aggressively nailing down the broader
>north-south peace agreement”.
>`African solution'
>
>Apart from a few face-saving outbursts from Sudanese government
>ministers and army leaders soon after the Security Council resolution
>was passed, the Sudanese regime seems to have fallen into line. On
>August 5, Reuters reported that Jan Pronk, Annan's special
>representative in Sudan, was already telling reporters that “the
>government has to be commended for keeping its promise [on action in
>Darfur]. We have full access [for relief supplies]... They have deployed
>many more police in the region and they have stopped their own military
>activities against villages.”
>
>That same day, Brigadier Jamal al Huweris, police commissioner in
>northern Darfur, told the Sudanese Media Centre, a pro-government
>newsagency, that the janjaweed would soon be disarmed.
>
>Meanwhile, the African Union announced on August 4 it will send up to
>2000 troops, drawn from Nigeria, Rwanda and Tanzania, to Darfur with an
>expanded mandate to protect refugees, “disarm and neutralise” the
>janjaweed and allow the deliveries of aid supplies.
>
>Sudanese foreign minister Mustafa Osman Ismail told Reuters on August 5
>that Sudan would cooperate with the AU force. The rebel SLM/A and JEM,
>as well as the opposition National Democratic Alliance, have also
>endorsed the “African solution” of an AU peacekeeping force in Darfur.
>
> From Green Left Weekly, August 11, 2004.

 
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At 8:58 AM, Blogger Fluent-Sudani said...

I agree with most of appalling passages you've written about Darfur conflict.

It is indeed fabricated in respect of oil.

I studied Darfur history, janjaweed are misunderstood for being called "Arab Knights," attack at night, rob cattles, goods. Kill any person that resists- had been going for ages.

I see it like FGM, Sudan is gradually getting rid of it. However, it is going through a long process, abandoning usual state.

It is odd how president G.W. sponsors a campaign for a country far in Africa on television, and abandon African American' Katrina victims. Same goes to George Clooney, grasping fame whilst hiding under humanitarian attire.

 
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Buhara Gümüş , gümüş ürünler kategorisinde gümüş yüzükler , kolyeler , bileklikler , isimli takılar , gümüş saatler , hediyelik ürünler ve kişiye özel gümüş ürünler satışı yapan

( www.buharasilver.com ) un kurumsal web sayfasıdır. Sitemize gümüş ürünlerimizin sadece tanıtımı ve bilgilendirilmesi yapılmaktadır. Sipariş vermek ve

online satın almak için Buhara Silver ( www.buharasilver.com ) adresini ziyaret ediniz..

 

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