Monday, January 19, 2004

What the... ?

Dean places 3rd in Iowa. I'm not surprised, due to Zogby's excellent polling, but I am shocked none the less.

Kerry and Edwards had a tremendous surge which valuted them into the first slot and second.

How did it happen? Excellent organization and message by Kerry and Edwards. A soft second choice position for Dean, which translated to people rolling off to Kerry and Edwards from other candidates, especially Gephardt. Oddly, Kucinich put his shoulder behind Edwards and gave him some help. Gephardt's negativity killed him and hurt Dean, too. He's out of the race. Gephardt's organization delivered the people, but failed to get the votes, thus they actually worked hard for Gephardt supporter's second choices, Kerry and Edwards.

Why didn't Dean's large number of expected 1's (people whose first choice is Dean and are definitely going to caucus), many of whom are first time caucusers, come through? I suspect two reasons, many of Dean's 1's were actually softer in their support and they rolled with the tide, and there was a failure of nerve as the 'unelectibility' meme took its toll. A lot of people just gave in to the idea of Kerry's electabilty and war hero status. The youth vote and the union vote went strongly for Kerry.

Oddly, a small sample of Iowans seemed to indicate that Kerry was perceived as having a positive campaign, along with Edwards, who really did have a very positive campaign. Kerry's people were caught push polling in Iowa and Kerry's attacks on Dean and Clark thoughout the campaign have been constant to the point of obsessiveness. Yet people seemed to feel that he was running on a positive message. I think this is mostly due to adoption of Dean's themes by kerry and Edwards in the final weeks. Edwards especially now speaks of 'two Americas', one rich and one poor, and a of a movement to renew America, speaks strongly of ending poverty and the working poor. His themes are 'our America' and a dualism in the nature of America we must bring to an end, bringing 'real change' to America, renewing our pride in America. These are themes that Dean located in the American psyche and the other candidates are now mining to reinvigorate their campaigns. The sincerest form of flattery is immitation.

Apparently, turnout was extraordinarily high, but there was a lot of walk-in registrations that the campaign did not expect. These unregistered voters where not included in polling or in anyone's expectations and they were predominantly Kerry and Edwards supporters.

Finally, the perfect storm was actually a shit storm on Dean. He took constant beatings from the White House, from the other campaigns, especially Gephardt (who knew he was fighting for his political life) and Kerry, and from the major media who homed in with character issues and ran so much negative press that all parts of Dean's message except perhaps his attacks on Bush and the war were nearly drowned out. 4-5 weeks of the constant assault and Dean's attempt to deal with damage control hammered him down and took the starch out of many supporter's spines.

The result: Dean is at his best as the underdog, the insurgent, the bad boy politician. He and his supporters are jazzed to have gotten 3rd place, not dissappointed. The punditocracy will try to write him off and belittle him, say that his anger and his character flaws have taken their toll and his ride is at an end. They will see this as an opportunity to stop Dean from taking the nomination. Shows what they know.

Dean does have to come in either first of second in New Hampshire to keep his front runner status. His numbers will begin to slip nationally if he comes in lower. The biggest test will become Arizona and South Carolina, should that happen. Arizona demostrates the ability to win more conservative and demographically diverse state, and South Carolina will test viability in the south and probe the strength of Dean among rural black voters.

Dean is far from finished, though. This barely dents Dean. In fact, it may take some of the heat off him and help him heading into the multi-state contests. Dean's support is deep and nation-wide. He can go back to being the outsider and the insurgent. He gets a chance now to come back and begin running against the establishment candidates again who will themselves now come come under greater scrutiny and attack. The only way to squash Dean is to grind out his grassroots support. On to New Hampshire! Bring it on!

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