Blog For Arizona

Some Positive Signs in lastest SurveyUSA tracking poll

Survey USA - Current Election Polls

A new tracking poll puts Clark out in front of Dean by 7 points in AZ. Clark 39%, Dean 32%. The sample size of 412 certain voters and the large MOE of 4.9% means that the results for Dean and Clark are 95% likely to be within a range of:
Clark 34.1-43.9%
Dean 27.1-36.9%
These results are therefore within the margin of error, and all that can be said with any reasonable degree of certainly, 95% confidence level, is that the numbers are very close. The almost 3 point overlap indicates a likely statistical dead heat. The missing fact is the trend when additional sampling points are added.

Keep in mind that these percentages actually represent very slim margins in the interview pool; 107 interviewees selecting Clark and 104 selecting Dean. When 168 additional interviews, those who self-report as 'probable' voters are included in the sample, the gap narrows even further to 28% for Dean and 30% for Clark. Both candidates decline overall because of the large number of 'probables' who declare for Lieberman, ballooning his numbers from 8 to 16%. This trend line make a hypothesis that larger polls will tend to run toward convergence between these candidates, rather than divergence. Clark and Dean are clearly very close in Arizona, with Lieberman gaining ground. The determining factor could be velocity gained from earlier primaries. Dean is slated to win DC, win or take second in Iowa, and to win NH handily. If he wins all three, his 'mo' from those wins could swamp Clark here in Arizona.

Finally, the poll was conducted over a three day period, 1/9-1/11, and considerable volitility was shown during the polling. Clark was runinng at +16 on Friday 1/9 and Saturday 1/10, but then suddenly he dropped to only +1 on Sunday. Is it possible that Clark peaked on Sunday, finishing his fifteen minutes of fame? Or is Clark just getting warmed up? Only new polling will tell or the election will tell.

Dean continues to be very strong with key demographics in the state; youth 18-34 prefer him 33-27% vs Clark, Hispanics select Dean at a rate of 34-31%, and liberals by 40% to 37%. Most troubling for Dean in Arizona, however, are the large gaps of 30-44% for Clark among 55+, 30-38% among Moderate Democrats, and 30-38% among White voters. These demgraphics constitute 32%, 53%, and 60% of Arizona Democrats respectively. Unless Dean appeal to these groups more strongly, it will be a very tight race in Arizona, at best.

posted by Michael Bryan @ 1/13/2004 01:40:00 PM