Sunday, December 14, 2003

Saddam pried out of his hole

Army tells of pulling Saddam from hole. 15/12/2003. ABC News Online

The news of the day, and likely for months to come, is the capture of Saddam Hussein. Personally, I thought he would be in Belorus, or some other haven, not in his hometown in a hole. You can be sure though that the Bush administration will try to get as much political mileage out of this as possible.

Saddam's capture is great news for the Administration and good news for the great majority of Iraqi people. It is also great news for the Democratic candidates, believe it or not. The issue which redeems all the Rah Rah jingo-bull the GOP will try to surround this event with is how, when, where, and under what conditions will Saddam be tried?

The strongest push will be to try Saddam in Iraq. The problem with this is that Iraq does not have a sovereign government to try him. The provisional authority is completely the creature of the US and thus will not be a suitable forum in the eyes of many. I have little doubt that the Administration will get its way in this, however. It will reduce the legitimacy of a trial in the eyes of the world and especially in the eyes of Ba'athists.

The second major issue will be the death penalty. If Saddam were tried by the ICC in Den Hague, death would be off the table. The GOP won't stand for that. Their solution will be some hastily cobbled together tribunal under the Iraqi P.A. which allows the death penality. This will not win points with the world community, but likely will with most Iraqis and American's.

Finally, and most important, how open will the trial be and will Saddam get to mount his own defense? Saddam has a lot of damaging dirt on current Administration officials' complicity in, and acceptance of, his crimes. These revelations before a U.S. audience could be very damaging to the Administration. They will try to close the proceedings, or at least that part including Saddam's defense.

This is where the Democrats come in. They need to insist on a fair and open public trial. He can be tried in Iraq, but the ICC should do the trial to ensure fairness, or he should not be tried until Iraq is given back its soveriegnty. The capture of Saddam could ironically become a powerful anodyne for the return of Iraq to self-rule. They must insist on full and open press access to the trial, especially for a complete withdrawl of all sensorship of the Iraqi press, and not allow national security to be used to throw a blanket over any portion of the proceedings. They should ridicule the idea strongly that a deposed dictator pulled out of a hole poses any risk to our national security, especially given that his regime has been "destroyed" by America.

Saddam's capture is an opportunity for the Dems to show some spine and leadership on international affairs, if they roll over and allow the Administration everything they are going to demand, they will look weak and pussilanimous. If they stand on principle from the very begining, American's natural curiousity and attitude of entitlement to information will work in their favor to make sure that Saddam's capture benefits the Iraqis (as a truth commission, of sorts), nettles the Administration, and plays well for the Dems. If they are not carefull, this could become a year-long morality play / penny dreadful propelling Bush into another term.

Finally, they need to constantly reiterate the fact that good intellegence, a lead from a relative in the case, led to Saddam's capture, and that the Administration's hard-ball tactics in Iraq make such cooperation increasing unlikely. Without such intelligence and cooperation, stopping the insurgents or liberation fighters who are killing our troops, is very nearly impossible.

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