Blog For Arizona

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An excellent compilation of national polls. It shows Dean's remarkable take-off in the summer and the collapse of other campaigns, expecially Kerry. Clark's numbers are also put in perspective as he hovers in the second tier after an impressive launch. Click on the thumbnail for the full size chart.

You'll notice that the lesson of this chart is that once dean passes you in the polls, the game is over. The other candidates' campaigns have now almost exclusively become about stopping Dean. The hyperbolistic trand of Dean's support looks rather unstoppable, though. Only actually voting and time will tell, but I would be surprised in Dean doesn't come in first in all but two or three of the earliest primaries. OK looks like Clark may take it. AZ is extremely competitive between Clark and Dean. Clark has solidified his support in AZ recently, mostly at the expense of Lieberman and Kerry. Finally, MO remains a bastion of strength for Gephardt, though it looks like he's been solidly thrashed by Dean in Iowa. WDC, IA (caucus), NH, DE, NM (caucus), and WI are solid wins for Dean. It's hard to tell what will happen when candidates start leaving the race, a lot of voters will be up for grabs to whomever can snag them. Probably by March 2nd, and certainly by March 9th the nomination will be all over but the crying. with CA, TX, NY, FL, Mass, and OH decided sufficient delegates will be tied up that the nominee will be a decided, though the details of any coalition he'll need to secure the requisite number of delegates may still be at issue.

This is where Clark's assertion that he would never take the VP slot may come back to haunt him. His statement was probably politically neccessary to let let voters know he is in it for the win not the wing position, but it may limit his ability to negotiate with his delegates at the convention is some unfortunate ways.

posted by Michael Bryan @ 12/22/2003 10:40:00 PM